Ebenezer Nimako Nyarko outlines methodology for 2024 parliamentary forecast

Ebenezer Nimako Nyarko, CEO of EN Analytics, has detailed the methodology behind the firm’s latest parliamentary forecast ahead of Ghana’s 2024 elections. 

In a 13-page report released on Tuesday (8 October), the analytics firm predicted that the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is likely to secure 96 parliamentary seats, while the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) could count 82 seats as safe. 

However, 97 constituencies remain too close to call.

Nyarko, speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show (ABS) on Wednesday (9 October), emphasised that the forecast was not based on opinion polling but instead on historical data and an economic well-being index. 

He explained that these two data sets, combined with a “swing methodology,” were key to their analysis.

“This is not an opinion poll rating; this is [a] forecast based on historical data and what we call the economic well-being index. These are the two data sets that we are using and they are based on five key parameters, what we call the swing methodology,” he said.

Nyarko elaborated on the swing methodology, explaining that it takes into account the swing in each constituency, the direction of the swing, the election cycle, the stability or volatility of the data, and, most critically, the economic well-being index.

The economic well-being index, a central part of EN Analytics’ model, assesses parameters such as inflation, GDP, exchange rates, the corruption perception index, and data from the Afrobarometer report. 

“The first four are historical but the economic well-being index is based on certain parameters, like the inflation rate within the last four years, GDP rates, exchange rates, performance, the corruption perception index and then the Afrobarometer report,” Nyarko said.

This index is designed to measure the performance of the incumbent government and gauge public sentiment towards the ruling party. 

According to Nyarko, the forecast then uses these metrics to generate an estimate for each constituency.

“So this is how the data is captured and then we use these parameters to generate what we call an estimate,” Nyarko explained. “So in each constituency, if the estimate is greater than 15, then it is solid for that party; if the estimate is between 10 and 15, then we classify it as likely.”

He added that estimates between five and 10 favouring the NPP or NDC indicate a narrow victory for the respective party. Estimates below five points to a “toss-up” situation, meaning the race is too close to predict.

Below is EN Analytics’ 2024 Parliamentary Forecast:

EN Analytics 2024 Parliamentary Forecast by leroyhawkson on Scribd

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