IPG predicts 50.2% win for Dr Bawumia in 7 December elections

The Institute of Progressive Governance (IPG) has predicted a first-round victory for the Vice President and Presidential Candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, in the upcoming 7 December 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections, with 50.2% of the valid votes to be cast by Ghanaians.

The IPG’s projection is based on a survey the institute conducted ahead of the general elections, with a sample size of twenty-nine thousand twenty-nine (29,029).

According to the IPG survey, John Mahama, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), will place second with 47.3% of the valid votes to be cast, while the remaining 11 candidates will secure 2.5% of the valid votes to be cast.

In the survey document cited by Asaase News, the IPG indicated that they employed the multi-stage technique covering all 276 constituencies in the country for their survey. Five electoral areas (EAs) were selected based on probability sampling from all 276 constituencies.

Additionally, seven respondents who are registered voters were selected for the interview in each of the polling stations, three of which were selected randomly from each of the five electoral areas which were selected.

Out of the sample size of 20,029, 13,965, representing 48% were males and 15,064, representing 52%, were females. The respondents were  among other, farmers (4,228), traders (2,530), Artisan (2,144), private sector persons (1,375), Teachers (657), public servants (424).

Some 13,777 (50.2%) respondents in answer to the question; “”Which political party or candidate will you vote for in the 2024 election,” indicated that they will vote for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia. 12,981 (47.3%) opted for Mr John Mahama, the presidential candidate of the NDC.

On the parliamentary elections, the survey projected that the NPP has 117 safe seats while the NDC has 56 safe seats. The findings indicated that by safe seats, it means the seats where candidates from both sides are likely to win with more that 55% of the votes that will be cast in the constituency.

The reseachers project that the country is highly likely to avoid a run-off election in the 2024 presidential elections as happened in the year 2000 and 2008.

Click on the link to read the full survey finding of IPG

IPG Survey Document on the 2024 General Elections

Reporting by Wilberforce Asare in Accra, Ghana

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