Agyepong: No room for NDC to break through in NPP Ashanti heartlands

Engineer Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, the senior political aide to Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, has expressed confidence that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will make significant inroads into strongholds of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the Ashanti Region and zongos nationwide in this weekend’s general election.

Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show yesterday (4 December 2024), Agyepong declared that the NPP is poised to “eat into” the 20%-plus presidential vote share that the NDC typically secures in the region and the 30% that the main opposition party has targeted for the election on 7 December.

Agyepong singled out Asawase, an area of Kumasi that has voted consistently for the NDC in both parliamentary and presidential elections.

He said he believes the NPP’s revived base in this NDC stronghold, and the personal popularity of Dr Bawumia, who will be appearing at the top of the ticket, will shift the balance in favour of the NPP.

NDC enclave in Kumasi

Asawase, with a voter population exceeding 100,000 and 215 voting centres, has been a political enigma in Ashanti since the constituency was created by boundary changes in 2004.

Though it is surrounded by significant NPP constituencies such as Manhyia South, Manhyia North and Oforikrom, Asawase has voted for NDC parliamentary candidates since 2004, a by-product of its strong Muslim and Northern tribal demographics.

The voting pattern for the presidential race in Asawase swung to give Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo a majority share in 2016 (53.95%), but local support for the NDC in the parliamentary race has been consistent.

In the 2016 elections, the NPP’s presidential candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, garnered 39,363 votes (53.95%) in Asawase, while the former president John Dramani Mahama, the NDC’s candidate, secured 33,108 votes (45.38%).

Despite Akufo-Addo’s win in the local presidential race in 2016, Alhaji Muntaka Mubarak retained his parliamentary seat with 39,095 votes (53.6%), compared to the NPP’s candidate, Alhaji Alidu Seidu, who had 33,490 (45.9%).

Muntaka has been the MP for Asawase since he won the seat in a by-election in 2005. At the last election in 2020, he increased his vote share from 53.6% (39,095 votes) in 2016 to 66.36% (61,659 votes), Alidu Seidu securing just 31,256 (33.64% of the vote).

Akufo-Addo’s votes dropped to 35,214 (42.41%) in the local presidential election in the same year, against Mahama’s 47,460 votes (57.16%).

Watch an excerpt from Kwabena Agyepong’s interview on the Asaase Breakfast Show here:

Fierce competition

Agyepong argued that while the NDC has polled consistently well in Asawase, the presence this time round of a local candidate, Manaf Ibrahim, and Dr Bawumia at the top of the ticket will help the NPP make substantial gains.

“That 30% that [NDC] talk about – that’s where we’re going to eat into their vote share … We’ve got a base there, and with Bawumia leading the charge, I can guarantee you that we’ll eat a chunk of that vote. I don’t think they’ll get anywhere near the 25% they normally do in the Ashanti Region,” he said.

Reflecting on the broader political landscape, Agyepong said the NPP is gaining ground in other areas that have been historically weak for the party, including Bono East. He predicted that at least seven constituencies currently held by the NDC could fall to the NPP in this election, signalling a competitive race.

Agyepong spoke of the role played by the Zongo Development Fund, established by the Akufo-Addo government in 2018, to promote development in Muslim-dominated urban areas of Ghana and support enterprise among zongo residents.

“I’m not saying we’re going to win the zongos, because they have been traditionally NDC, but there will be some swing … some movement towards equalisation, and that movement on its own will be enough for [Bawumia] to win the election,” he told the ABS.

“We are fighting [the NDC] on their terrain. Even in Bono East, where we [NPP] were weak, it reveals that there are seven constituencies that are likely to fall away [from the NDC] this time round. It is going to be an interesting election.”

Isabella Agyakwa for Asaase News in Accra

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