Opinion: The wind of change is not blowing in Ghana’s 2024 general election

The year 2016 marked a significant turning point in Ghana’s political landscape, as the wind of change blew strongly in favor of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), leading to a change in government.

The 2016 elections in Ghana were characterized by a strong wind of change, fueled by economic challenges, leadership issues, and a desire for improved governance.

The NPP effectively tapped into this sentiment, offering a compelling alternative to the NDC’s rule. As a result, the NPP secured a decisive victory, reflecting voters’ aspirations for change and their belief in the NPP’s ability to deliver on its promises.

As Ghana approaches its 2024 general elections, the political landscape appears to be resisting significant shifts. Historically, the “wind of change” is often synonymous with upheaval and transformation, but in this cycle, the factors that typically ignite such winds seem subdued.

One major factor contributing to this stasis is the strength of the incumbent party, the New Patriotic Party (NPP). After nearly eight years in office, the NPP, led by President Nana Akufo-Addo, has solidified its base.

The party has effectively used its incumbency to maintain control over key political and economic institutions, making it difficult for opposition forces to mobilize a strong wave of discontent. While Ghana has a tradition of competitive elections and peaceful transitions, incumbency still plays a powerful role in shaping the dynamics of the race.

A seemingly divided Opposition is another issue to be considered. The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) is struggling to gather momentum, with internal divisions casting doubt on its ability to present a unified front.

The return of former President John Dramani Mahama as the party’s flagbearer brings familiarity, but it does not necessarily signal a fresh direction or a strong counter-narrative to the NPP’s platform. The NDC, led by former President John Dramani Mahama, faces several challenges that may hinder its prospects in the upcoming election.

The NDC has struggled with internal leadership and unity issues. Some party members have expressed dissatisfaction, calling for changes in the party’s leadership. This lack of cohesion may raise concerns among voters about the party’s ability to govern effectively.

Former President Mahama’s previous term was marked by economic challenges and power outages (“dumsor”). Some voters may associate these challenges with his tenure, potentially diminishing his appeal as a viable alternative.

The NDC has struggled to present a compelling alternative narrative to the NPP’s achievements. Beyond criticism of the ruling party, the NDC needs to offer a distinct and appealing vision for Ghana’s future. The NDC has faced allegations of corruption during its previous tenure, including the infamous bus branding scandal.

These allegations may erode voter trust and undermine the party’s credibility. Mahama’s previous electoral loss in 2020 and his association with past economic challenges may work against him, limiting the “wind of change” narrative often associated with opposition movements.

The economic conditions in recent years provide a mixed signals which does not warrant a wind of change in the 2024 general elections. While Ghana’s economy has faced challenges, including inflation, rising debt, and a cost-of-living crisis, the NPP has managed to steer the conversation towards its recovery efforts.

Government programs like the Domestic Debt Exchange Program (DDEP) and initiatives to stabilize the currency have helped to mitigate some public dissatisfaction. Though economic pain points exist, the government’s efforts to portray a gradual recovery may undermine the opposition’s ability to capitalize on economic discontent as a rallying cry for change.

Ghanaian voters, known for their engagement and commitment to democracy, are expressing mixed feelings. Many recognize the difficulties the nation has faced but are unsure whether the alternatives offered by the opposition represent a real improvement.

The electorate may be cautious about significant change, preferring continuity with the hope that current government initiatives will eventually yield better results.

Ghanaians are known for their voter dynamics and preferences during elections. Voter sentiment in Ghana appears to favor stability and continuity, especially amid economic uncertainties and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Voters may prioritize stability and continuity, especially if they perceive the NDC’s previous tenure as tumultuous. The NPP’s message of stability and progress may resonate more strongly with voters.

The NPP’s infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, and health facilities, are highly visible across the country. These projects serve as tangible reminders of the party’s achievements, influencing voters who value concrete development outcomes.

Former President Mahama’s electability is a key factor. Some voters may question his ability to bring about meaningful change, given the challenges faced during his previous term. The NDC needs to address this perception and showcase Mahama’s renewed vision and strengths.

Finally, NPP’s strong performance and achievements speak volumes and give no room to any revolutionary change. The NPP, led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, has a solid track record of delivering on key campaign promises.

Since taking office in 2017, the NPP government has made significant strides across various sectors. Ghana’s economy has experienced steady growth under the NPP government, with improved macro-economic indicators and a stable currency.

This performance may appeal to voters who prioritize economic stability and predictability. The NPP has embarked on ambitious infrastructure projects, including the “Year of Roads” initiative and the construction of health facilities and schools across the country.

These visible achievements serve as tangible reminders of the party’s commitment to development. The NPP’s flagship Free Senior High School policy has benefited thousands of Ghanaian families, providing access to secondary education.

This landmark policy is likely to solidify support among voters who value investments in education. The NPP has expanded social welfare programs, such as the Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) program, providing support to vulnerable households and the elderly.

This demonstrates a commitment to social welfare that may attract voters from lower-income brackets. The NPP government has taken concrete steps to combat corruption, including the establishment of the Office of the Special Prosecutor.

This focus on transparency and accountability may appeal to voters who prioritize good governance.

Ultimately, the political climate ahead of the 2024 elections seems to be one of pragmatism rather than revolutionary change. Ghanaians appear more focused on practical solutions to economic challenges than on sweeping political upheaval. This mindset dampens the likelihood of a strong “wind of change” blowing through the elections.

As the campaign season intensifies, both the NPP and NDC will need to sharpen their messages, but as things stand, the wind of change that typically signals a dramatic political shift appears to be a light breeze at best.

Professor Isaac Boadi

Dean, Faculty of Accounting and Finance, University of Professional Studies, Accra

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